RADICAL SAVING PROGRAMS
The recession appears to have reached its low point - but the labor market, the worst is yet to come. Experts believe up to five million unemployed, now throw the company out of thousands of employees. SPIEGEL ONLINE shows where the majority of jobs eliminated.
Hamburg - The news sounds very promising these days: Industrial production steady, runs the export of light, the Dax gains within a few weeks, about 30 percent. Everything is good, you might say. If not for the labor market would be.
expect up to five million unemployed professionals in the coming year, Verdi chief Frank Bsirske expects this summer with mass layoffs. Many companies get started already: Just in the past few weeks, she announced to the reduction of thousands of posts (see photo gallery).
And although the recession has reached its lowest point clearly. For most indicators point to a bottoming out of the crisis curve. "The world economy is in the vicinity of the turning point, some Countries that have already passed, "says Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank.
That does not mean that the economy picks up immediately now. But it can not go down. For the companies at least passable . situation
that the workers, however, the worst is yet to come is due to the inertia of the job market - it lags the development in production after only months, the economic recovery comes from the employees at far the contrary.. is "the high point of the job crisis will wait until 2010 before," said Klaus Zimmermann, president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).
To stop the job cuts would have to grow the economy by 1.3 to 1.5 percent, calculates the expert. "Over the next few years but it would be difficult for us to achieve these growth rates."
could So far, the companies make do with reduced hours. But is not a permanent solution, says Martin Kannegiesser, president of the Employers' total metal. We can not forever prevent layoffs by short-time.
economists expect a recovery until 2013
Another buffer are forced leave or working time accounts over time - but here, the companies largely exhausted its possibilities. The result: In the second half of the year there may be "more job cuts," says Kannegiesser.
already makes the felt. According to the Federal Statistical Office are currently 39.9 million persons in employment - 46,000 less than a year ago. How dramatic is the situation, show figures of the Munich Ifo Institute. While the Ifo business climate index stabilized - so companies are assessing their situation better - the Ifo Employment Barometer slipped straight down. In April, the index number the lowest level since July 2003. This means that the German industry is facing a drastic reduction in personnel. "The longer the recession, companies should refrain from short-time working and job cuts to go into real," said Ifo economic expert Klaus Abberger in the Financial Times Germany ".
And this situation could well continue. Because economists assume that the German economy stagnated for years, or only very slightly increasing. Experts speak of a so-called L-recession after the crash of a bob of the economy follows a low level.
investment until 2013, says the spring report of the leading research institutions, it could go up again. For employees, these are not good prospects.
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